As summer fades, an Autumn Budget looms

As summer draws to a close, attention is beginning to shift towards the Autumn Budget.

In July 2024, Rachel Reeves made her contentious House of Commons statement about the “£22 billion black hole” and, as one of the measures to fill it, severely restricted pensioner entitlement to the Winter Fuel Payment. One consequence of her ‘discovery’ was that the rest of that summer and the first part of autumn was full of speculation about what tax rises would be contained in the 2024 Autumn Budget. 

Fast forward a year and there is a similar story playing out. The Winter Fuel Payment features again, but this time it is the £1.25 billion cost of the climbdown on means-testing that matters. To that can be added about the £5 billion expense of another reversal of policy, reform of disability benefits. This new black hole, alongside slowing economic growth, is generating a fresh round of speculation examining what taxes might be increased. 

The Chancellor has reiterated that increases to income tax, national insurance and VAT for ‘working people’ remain off the table. However, there is ongoing speculation about other potential areas, such as:

• A further freeze on income tax allowances and bands: The personal allowance and income tax thresholds were originally frozen for four years (2022/23–2025/26) by Rishi Sunak, to which another two years were added by Jeremy Hunt. Rachel Reeves could extend the freeze until April 2030. 

• Pension contribution tax relief: A regular candidate for revenue-raising, so far, most Chancellors have merely nibbled this low-hanging fruit. Were Rachel Reeves to be bolder and, for example, introduce a flat rate of relief for all contributions, this could generate billions from the ever-growing number of higher and additional rate taxpayers.

• A wealth tax: This idea was resurrected recently by Neil Kinnock, a former Labour leader, and to date, the government has studiously refused to rule out the possibility. In practice, wealth taxes have proved difficult to administer and many countries have abandoned them. As if to underline the problems, according to a July 2025 report from the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee, “HMRC has no overview of an individual’s total wealth and faces challenges in getting all the data it needs to risk assess and target wealthy people”. 

With possible changes ahead, now may be a sensible time to review your personal finances and ensure you’re well positioned for the months to come. Please note that, until official announcements are made, it’s best to avoid knee-jerk reactions and stay focused on your long-term goals with your adviser.

Tax treatment varies according to individual circumstances and is subject to change. The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate tax advice. 

Important information:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. We recommend you speak to your financial adviser before making any decisions. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

No statements or representations made in the article are legally binding upon Shackleton Advisers Limited or the recipient.

All references to taxation are in relation to UK taxation and are based on our current understanding of UK laws and HMRC practices. Tax reliefs may change in the future and may not be maintained.  Tax treatment is based on your individual circumstances. All other information is based on our understanding of current legislation and regulation which may be subject to change.

Shackleton is a trading name of Shackleton Advisers Limited who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Number 163291. Shackleton Advisers Limited is registered in England and Wales, no. 04129116. Registered Office: 23 Coleridge Street, Hove, BN3 5AB. 

Related posts:

The UK’s Biggest Financial Fears 5 shrewd ways to avoid paying tax on your savings The return of the Winter Fuel Payment